Assignment 1: Hypothesis Construction (due February 4th)

This assignment is designed to give you practice developing hypotheses that you may want to test for your final project. Because we are starting with existing data and thus are restricted in the kinds of hypotheses we can derive and test, we will be engaged in secondary analysis of existing data. Throughout the semester you will start with already existing data (the 1998 General Social Survey, or GSS), generate a hypothesis about the relationship existing among selected variables, and test that hypothesis by finding indicators of your concepts and applying various data analytic techniques. To complete the process, you will present the results of your data analysis and describe how these results affect your initial expectations.

This assignment is the first step in this semester-long process. You will use information from the GSS website to collect what you need to begin Assignment 1. The first step is to use your browser to go to the GSS website:

Browse through the set of links in the box on your left to see what might be useful for you later on (e.g., the bibliography of papers/books using the GSS variables). For this assignment, choose either the "Mnemonic" or "Subject" link to select variables for your assignment. "Mnemonic" can take you quickly to a variable if you already know a variable name (e.g., "educ" for education, or "sex" for sex of respondent). [Note that most variables are given intuitive names.] "Subject" can help you search for an interesting set of variables if you're less sure of what variables you want to choose. I'll use the "Subject" search.

Example: in the illustrative answer you'll see I'm interested in the relationship between education (my independent variable) and attitudes toward pornography (my dependent variable). Specifically, I'm interested in explaining variation in attitudes toward pornography, and I think that education probably has something to do with why some people are more tolerant about pornography than others. So I clicked on "Subject", and then on "P" (for pornography) at the top of the page. I chose "Sex" rather than "Movies" under "pornography," and see a whole set of possible variables. Further down the page, I found a variable named "pornlaw," which investigates attitudes toward pornography laws. Clicking on the variable name will give you important information for that variable, including variable name, survey question, the punch codes associated with each response, and the numbers of people answering each response for multiple years from 1972 to 1998. Go through the same process for your independent variable. I chose "educ" (education). Print a copy of both these pages (you'll need to turn them in with your assignment).

Important point: please check to make sure that the variables you have chosen were asked in 1998. If not, you won't be able to use them for your final project. A check of the data reveals that both of my variables are available in 1998 (i.e., there are numbers in the 1998 column).

Your turn: select two variables that you believe might be causally related. If you choose wisely, you'll be able to use these variables for the rest of the semester. Then construct a theory and develop a hypothesis that describes your expectation about how these two variables are related. Make your hypothesis as specific as possible. Include a short statement about how you came up with the theory and hypothesis you did. Why do you have the expectation you do? Don't use my example, develop one of your own.

You will have to think ahead and not wait until the last minute to do this assignment. You should also make it a point to come see one of us during the next month so we can talk with you about possible "recoding" you may need for one or more of your variables. For example, if you choose "Highest Year of School Completed" ("educ") as one of your variables, you will want to recode the responses into a smaller number of categories (e.g., 0 through 11 years of schooling=1; 12 years of schooling=2, etc.). That will make your variable more manageable in your data analyses. We'll show you later how to do this recoding.

Once you have developed your testable hypothesis, follow it through the research process described in class: describe your theory; the hypothesis you plan to test; your conceptualization of the two variables; and your operationalization of the variables (don't forget that your indicators will be the questions asked in the GSS). Later in the semester you will make a crosstabulation table to test your theory with real data from the General Social Survey..

Finally, speculate on which additional variables you might want to include in your future analyses to help you reformulate your theory.

To help you along, I have written up an illustrative answer that you might find helpful in completing assignment 1. Avoid using my language in your writeup--write in your own words. Note that I have included a table using the 1998 GSS to demonstrate the results I found. Peruse this for future reference.

ALL ASSIGNMENTS MUST BE TYPED (and at least 12 point font, double spaced)!